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The past seemed less complicated. Match number four of the Scottish and New Zealand teams. A packed stadium, a 0-0 draw, January 1964. Euphoria at full-time. A pitch invasion to symbolize the historic accomplishment by Scotland.

Having beaten Ireland, Wales and England, the All Blacks had finally been halted in a international match.

The man from Pathe News almost blew a gasket. "A game that no-one who saw it will ever forget," he reported breathlessly and somewhat optimistically. "A match in which Scotland saved the honour of Britain."

Leaving the stadium that evening, Scottish fans would have had optimism about what was to come. Four attempts at beating New Zealand and no wins, but obvious indications that success might be imminent.

A few seasons after, the All Blacks defeated Scotland. Half a decade later, they beat them again. Another three years passed, identical outcome. Another five-year gap and, indeed, you know the rest.

Recent History

Two decades of matches later. Twenty consecutive New Zealand victories. From Christchurch to Dunedin, Auckland to Cardiff - the landscapes have changed but results remain consistent.

During his tenure, Scotland's coach has broken winless streaks in major European venues, but this challenge is different. Over a century of matches. One of sport's greatest hoodoos.

Team News

In recent years the comprehensive defeats have narrowed to closer margins in 2014, 2017 and 2022, but New Zealand consistently prevail.

Via their excellence, physical dominance, their chicanery, they get the job done.

As match day approaches where the optimism that some may have held for a Scottish win is likely diminishing. Optimism meets historical reality.

Missing Players

Thursday brought news that Fagerson was unavailable. For Scotland's hopes it was like a kick in the guts.

Fagerson hasn't played since April, but he's exceptional and if available then the long gap without a game would not have been a massive concern.

In an era when most props are replaced long before the hour-mark, Fagerson's engine keeps running. No tighthead played nearly as many minutes in the Six Nations.

Squad Depth

Another absence is Jones but his replacement is in excellent form with his club. Fagerson's replacement presents concerns. D'Arcy Rae is an admirable tighthead, his international experience consists of limited game time.

Once Rae's shift ends, his replacement takes over. While competent, there's little to suggest that he's All Black-beating class.

Strategic Decisions

The coach has made unexpected selections, partly expected, some puzzling. Steyn's tactical awareness replaces Duhan van der Merwe's more one-dimensional power.

The back row has no recognisable truffle dog, Rory Darge starting on the bench. There's no Andy Onyeama-Christie in the 23.

Historical Context

Against Ireland, New Zealand won the first leg of what they hope will be a Grand Slam tour. They took an age to get going, even when playing against 14 men, but their final surge did the trick.

That and Ireland's defensive shape, their attack, set-piece issues.

By the Numbers

For all that their blasts at the end, the final quarter is not where New Zealand typically dominates. Across international matches going back three years, they've accumulated scores in the first half and 60 in the second half.

They've scored 39 in the first quarter, 48 in the second, 26 in the third and 34 in the fourth. They start aggressively.

What Scotland Needs

Against Scotland in 2022, they struck twice in the opening seven minutes. Establishing early dominance, the game looked done. Scotland fought back impressively to dominate temporarily.

The lesson here is that, metaphorically, Scotland must put the boot on the throat from kickoff - and keep it there.

In recent years, successful opponents have required a points average in the upper twenties. Scottish scoring only twice in their past 13 games against New Zealand.

Conclusion

Perfect execution is required for Scotland. Absolutely everything. If they start butchering chances early on then hopes fade. A yellow card? Repeated infringements? Set-piece struggles? It's over.

With perfect execution? Explosive start. A raucous crowd. Electric atmosphere. Ruthlessness. Russell being Russell. Graham being Graham.

Fantasy rugby, maybe. Consistent performance has been elusive from the Scottish team that would be good enough to beat the All Blacks. If the capability exists, it's about time it came out; a century is sufficient.